Seahawks vs Panthers
NFL Divisional Round
Sunday, 1:05 ET
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Seattle’s pass rush is potent, but Carolina does so much with max protection (i.e. keeping seven blockers in rather than just five) that the key becomes maintaining coverage discipline downfield. Few offenses are as good with deep zone-beater route combinations as offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s. The system’s reliability is one reason the mega-armed Newton has become a top-tier pocket passer. In this game, stopping Carolina down the seams is crucial; it’s where Greg Olsen resides and where Cover 3 zones can be vulnerable depending on the accompanying routes from the outside receivers. So is combatting Carolina’s deep in-breaking routes, something Seattle didn’t do well in Week 6.
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Newton’s greatest value remains in the ground game, where he’s either a runner or a significant decoy who forces linebackers and edge defenders to think more and thus play slower. Here the Panthers are also extremely well designed. Their running game, with its myriad pull-blockers, misdirection fakes and option ghost threats, presents more variables than any other in the league. Consider it strength against strength; the Seahawks are outstanding with gap discipline and have the speed to overcome missteps. With middle linebacker Bobby Wagner healthy (he wasn’t in the first meeting), this matchup is even in every facet.
The Seahawks passing game has improved in design, and Russell Wilson has responded by playing extremely well from the pocket. And because of his mobility, Seattle’s ground attack remains multipronged, forcing defenders to play slow. For Carolina, it’s often a pure zone-based approach, likely with one high safety on early downs and two high safeties in Tampa 2 on passing downs. The Panthers have improved in man-to-man this season, which they’ll employ in some of their select pressure packages. But given the importance of keeping eyes on Wilson, expect to see almost all zone.
The difference could be Carolina’s linebackers. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly have the speed to combat Wilson. Also, they’re heady enough to counter a tactically challenging running game and rangy enough to act on their shallow route reads, which impacts Doug Baldwin from the slot. Wilson has become a more disciplined player down the stretch, but he has hurt Carolina over the years with movement late in games. When the quarterback leans on his movement skills, there becomes a fine line between smart and sloppy offensive play. Overall, the better the defense, the more likely the sandlot plays are to be sloppy. But of course, the Vikings learned something on the Tyler Lockett catch, which came after the fumbled snap, that set up Seattle’s first touchdown last Sunday: with Wilson a sloppy play can still yield good results.
The Steelers don’t have great secondary personnel, but the group has lately overachieved in coordinator Keith Butler’s pressure-heavy scheme. Manning might be the most cerebral quarterback of all time, but against voluminous, disguise-based defenses he’s been known to stress and overthink things. There can be an upside to this, of course (see Manning’s 539 career touchdowns and 71,940 passing yards). But there’s also the potential for a downside, which, with the 39-year-old seeing his first full 60-minute action since Nov. 8, would come in the form of a fragmented out-of-rhythm passing game.
If Pittsburgh’s blitzes don’t generate disruption and the occasional big-play opportunities, the Broncos will have a shot at scoring 30. It’s hard to envision safety Mike Mitchell and corners Antwon Blake and William Gay handling the likes Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
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Perhaps not coincidentally, in the two games following the loss to the Steelers, the Broncos changed up their approach. In Week 16 against Cincinnati, they went with their usual man-to-man for much of the first half but shifted to zone in the second half. They did the same the next week against San Diego. It would be surprising if they don’t continue incorporating more zone this Sunday.
It will also be surprising if the Broncos do not keep both safeties back in coverage, inviting Pittsburgh to run the ball. Ben Roethlisberger has become a cerebral QB. One of the byproducts of his maturation is a willingness to check into running plays against a light defensive box. Roethlisberger will do this regardless if it’s DeAngelo Williams, Fitzgerald Toussaint or Jordan Todman in the backfield. All three have shown the necessary vision and short-area agility to create their own yards between the tackles. But sturdy as the backs have been, and adept as Pittsburgh can be with pull-blockers in the ground game (namely All-Pro right guard David DeCastro), a defense is far better off taking its chances against these guys with a light box than it is daring Roethlisberger and his receivers to beat them.
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NFL Divisional Round
Sunday, 1:05 ET
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
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Watch Seahawks vs Panthers NFC Divisional Round Live |
Carolina offense vs. Seattle defense
Another story you’ll hear 100 times this week: how soon-to-be league MVP Cam Newton’s turning point was his Week 6 road comeback over a Seahawks team that had beaten Carolina five straight times, including last year in the Divisional Round. Indeed, Newton was sensational late in that game and we began to see him in a different light. Since then, he’s only gotten better. But so have the Seahawks. They’re back to playing the basic Cover 3 zone and various straight man-to-man concepts that have defined their success.Seattle’s pass rush is potent, but Carolina does so much with max protection (i.e. keeping seven blockers in rather than just five) that the key becomes maintaining coverage discipline downfield. Few offenses are as good with deep zone-beater route combinations as offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s. The system’s reliability is one reason the mega-armed Newton has become a top-tier pocket passer. In this game, stopping Carolina down the seams is crucial; it’s where Greg Olsen resides and where Cover 3 zones can be vulnerable depending on the accompanying routes from the outside receivers. So is combatting Carolina’s deep in-breaking routes, something Seattle didn’t do well in Week 6.
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Watch Seahawks vs Panthers NFC Divisional Round Live |
Seattle offense vs. Carolina defense
The Seahawks passing game has improved in design, and Russell Wilson has responded by playing extremely well from the pocket. And because of his mobility, Seattle’s ground attack remains multipronged, forcing defenders to play slow. For Carolina, it’s often a pure zone-based approach, likely with one high safety on early downs and two high safeties in Tampa 2 on passing downs. The Panthers have improved in man-to-man this season, which they’ll employ in some of their select pressure packages. But given the importance of keeping eyes on Wilson, expect to see almost all zone.
The difference could be Carolina’s linebackers. Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly have the speed to combat Wilson. Also, they’re heady enough to counter a tactically challenging running game and rangy enough to act on their shallow route reads, which impacts Doug Baldwin from the slot. Wilson has become a more disciplined player down the stretch, but he has hurt Carolina over the years with movement late in games. When the quarterback leans on his movement skills, there becomes a fine line between smart and sloppy offensive play. Overall, the better the defense, the more likely the sandlot plays are to be sloppy. But of course, the Vikings learned something on the Tyler Lockett catch, which came after the fumbled snap, that set up Seattle’s first touchdown last Sunday: with Wilson a sloppy play can still yield good results.
Watch Seahawks vs Panthers NFC Divisional Round Live
Steelers vs Broncos
NFL Divisional Round
today, 4:40 PM
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
NFL Divisional Round
today, 4:40 PM
Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Denver offense vs. Pittsburgh defense
Peyton Manning is back, which means the Broncos will often find themselves audibling into the smartest running play. As far as what Manning brings through the air, that remains to be seen. He only threw nine passes in Week 17 against the Chargers. A few of those were completions outside the field numbers, which require a certain amount of arm strength. But all of them were against a Chargers secondary that was down to its backups.The Steelers don’t have great secondary personnel, but the group has lately overachieved in coordinator Keith Butler’s pressure-heavy scheme. Manning might be the most cerebral quarterback of all time, but against voluminous, disguise-based defenses he’s been known to stress and overthink things. There can be an upside to this, of course (see Manning’s 539 career touchdowns and 71,940 passing yards). But there’s also the potential for a downside, which, with the 39-year-old seeing his first full 60-minute action since Nov. 8, would come in the form of a fragmented out-of-rhythm passing game.
If Pittsburgh’s blitzes don’t generate disruption and the occasional big-play opportunities, the Broncos will have a shot at scoring 30. It’s hard to envision safety Mike Mitchell and corners Antwon Blake and William Gay handling the likes Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
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Pittsburgh offense vs. Denver defense
What happened when the Steelers posted 34 points and 354 yards through the air against Denver’s top-ranked defense in Week 15 was simple: Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris failed in man coverage against Antonio Brown. (Harris is far from the only one in the NFL.) In almost any other scenario, a player as good as Harris would get the benefit of the doubt and be given an opportunity to avenge the game as a pure man defender against Brown. But the Broncos seemed snake-bitten after Brown’s 189 yards. Head coach Gary Kubiak even made the case for the sixth-year wideout being the league’s MVP.Perhaps not coincidentally, in the two games following the loss to the Steelers, the Broncos changed up their approach. In Week 16 against Cincinnati, they went with their usual man-to-man for much of the first half but shifted to zone in the second half. They did the same the next week against San Diego. It would be surprising if they don’t continue incorporating more zone this Sunday.
It will also be surprising if the Broncos do not keep both safeties back in coverage, inviting Pittsburgh to run the ball. Ben Roethlisberger has become a cerebral QB. One of the byproducts of his maturation is a willingness to check into running plays against a light defensive box. Roethlisberger will do this regardless if it’s DeAngelo Williams, Fitzgerald Toussaint or Jordan Todman in the backfield. All three have shown the necessary vision and short-area agility to create their own yards between the tackles. But sturdy as the backs have been, and adept as Pittsburgh can be with pull-blockers in the ground game (namely All-Pro right guard David DeCastro), a defense is far better off taking its chances against these guys with a light box than it is daring Roethlisberger and his receivers to beat them.
Watch Steelers vs Broncos NFC Divisional Playoff Live
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